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Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to energize the party's annual gathering and to show the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates rose in an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his speeches having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". But context is everything.

During that darkly divisive time in 2018, straying from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Evolution of Stance & Settled Debates

In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite polling evidence suggests a significant number have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on the EU

Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. While Europe is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, the cap that has been kept firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure & Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is among those trying to overcome entrenched interior ministry opposition to an expansive version designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme allowing youths can move between Britain and Europe to study or work.

David Lammy muses openly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

Although the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there are ways to work around them. A proposal involves announce the start of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a new electoral mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts

However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea by warning a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. Firstly, he thinks any customs union agreement has been made significantly more difficult because his ministers actively diverging from European rules across a range of policy areas, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has led British officials that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK and are more focused on proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.

A Bizarre Document & Strategic Considerations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It contains a single mention of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in our politics to foster the rise of nationalist movements.

However, instead of concluding that this renders the US an unreliable partner, the government is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter and The Echo from the Past

All of which brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an attempt to keep open the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office have noticed that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would stand for the leadership, is part of a group of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her position on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Risk and A Wise Memory

The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to claim the territory where most of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be prudent of him to recall the effect that a short phrase had on his career in 2018. There are options for a big offer on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should explore them personally, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.