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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."