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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.